Setting description

Equal randomization: several treatments more effective in distinctive signatures (cfr scen 7)

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.014, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.013, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 66.5, median = 54.4 mean = 70.5, median = 57.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.7, hr = 0.5 af = 1.8, hr = 0.46 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.029, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 31.9, median = 26.1 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 0.82, hr = 1.3 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 38.3, median = 31.3 mean = 38.6, median = 31.5 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.98, hr = 1.03 af = 0.99, hr = 1.02 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.022, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 42.3, median = 34.6 mean = 43, median = 35.1 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.08, hr = 0.9 af = 1.1, hr = 0.88 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.026, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.026, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 35.1, median = 28.6 mean = 35.1, median = 28.6 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.9, hr = 1.15 af = 0.9, hr = 1.15 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 38.3, median = 31.3 mean = 38.6, median = 31.5 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 0.98, hr = 1.03 af = 0.99, hr = 1.02 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.019, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.021, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 48.7, median = 39.8 mean = 49.6, median = 40.5 mean = 43.6, median = 35.6
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.25, hr = 0.75 af = 1.27, hr = 0.73 af = 1.12, hr = 0.87

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 6 12 6
TP53- 19 15 7
TP53+ 10 10 39
DRD+ 7 6 351
TEfus+ 43 47 3
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.012 0.024 0.012
TP53- 0.038 0.030 0.014
TP53+ 0.020 0.020 0.078
DRD+ 0.014 0.012 0.702
TEfus+ 0.086 0.094 0.006
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 33 23 2
TP53- 144 116 57
TP53+ 204 205 23
DRD+ 174 152 0
TEfus+ 96 79 69
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.066 0.046 0.004
TP53- 0.288 0.232 0.114
TP53+ 0.408 0.410 0.046
DRD+ 0.348 0.304 0.000
TEfus+ 0.192 0.158 0.138
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 63 91 61
TP53+ 6 11 21
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.126 0.182 0.122
TP53+ 0.012 0.022 0.042
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.166.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.086             0.050             0.032

The overall power was 0.76.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.038             0.094             0.702

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
all graduation 0 6 6 12
futility 0 33 2 23
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 531 (469, 591) 386 (242, 525) 438 (278, 544) 379 (230, 536)
n_unique 531 (469, 591) 386 (242, 525) 438 (278, 544) 379 (230, 536)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60) 60 (60, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 32 (12, 57) 14 (9, 20) 25 (8, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.39 (0.05, 0.87) 0.63 (0.17, 0.95) 0.46 (0.07, 0.88)
rate 0.022 (0.02, 0.024) 0.023 (0.021, 0.025) 0.021 (0.02, 0.023) 0.022 (0.02, 0.025)
DRD+ graduation 0 7 351 6
futility 0 174 0 152
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 152 (115, 184) 97 (51, 162) 88 (51, 155) 102 (51, 166)
n_unique 152 (115, 184) 97 (51, 162) 88 (51, 155) 102 (51, 166)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (28, 60) 45 (26, 60) 60 (28, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 35 (24, 52) 38 (25, 54) 31 (24, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.09, 0.88) 1 (0.99, 1) 0.5 (0.08, 0.87)
rate 0.02 (0.017, 0.023) 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.01 (0.007, 0.012) 0.02 (0.017, 0.025)
TEfus+ graduation 0 43 3 47
futility 0 96 69 79
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 200 (165, 232) 133 (64, 205) 156 (67, 208) 136 (59, 207)
n_unique 200 (165, 232) 133 (64, 205) 156 (67, 208) 136 (59, 207)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (29, 60) 60 (32, 60) 60 (28, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 33 (19, 56) 25 (17, 41) 31 (18, 54)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.67 (0.18, 0.96) 0.21 (0.02, 0.67) 0.76 (0.24, 0.97)
rate 0.017 (0.015, 0.02) 0.016 (0.013, 0.02) 0.02 (0.017, 0.024) 0.016 (0.013, 0.02)
TP53- graduation 0 19 7 15
futility 0 144 57 116
max_n 0 63 61 91
n 287 (246, 335) 239 (73, 301) 242 (84, 301) 247 (83, 303)
n_unique 287 (246, 335) 239 (73, 301) 242 (84, 301) 247 (83, 303)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (18, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (21, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 24 (14, 48) 15 (11, 26) 26 (14, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.08, 0.9) 0.45 (0.1, 0.88) 0.53 (0.1, 0.92)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.023) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025) 0.021 (0.019, 0.024) 0.021 (0.018, 0.025)
TP53+ graduation 0 10 39 10
futility 0 204 23 205
max_n 0 6 21 11
n 242 (200, 284) 182 (61, 246) 206 (104, 267) 178 (59, 256)
n_unique 242 (200, 284) 182 (61, 246) 206 (104, 267) 178 (59, 256)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (19, 60) 60 (34, 60) 60 (18, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 28 (15, 51) 24 (15, 38) 26 (15, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.37 (0.06, 0.8) 0.75 (0.25, 0.97) 0.4 (0.06, 0.81)
rate 0.023 (0.021, 0.026) 0.025 (0.022, 0.029) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.025 (0.022, 0.03)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Niraparib Taxel_therapies
— graduation 0 169 71 144
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 63 61 91
n 152 (127, 185) 135 (40, 167) 142 (51, 175) 136 (44, 166)
n_unique 152 (127, 185) 135 (40, 167) 142 (51, 175) 136 (44, 166)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.37 (0.05, 0.81) 0.33 (0.06, 0.81) 0.38 (0.05, 0.8)
rate 0.025 (0.022, 0.029) 0.027 (0.023, 0.032) 0.027 (0.023, 0.031) 0.027 (0.023, 0.031)
–+ graduation 0 234 127 207
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 60 61 90
n 48 (35, 61) 36 (11, 52) 43 (12, 57) 39 (12, 56)
n_unique 48 (35, 61) 36 (11, 52) 43 (12, 57) 39 (12, 56)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.73 (0.32, 0.95) 0.02 (0, 0.16) 0.78 (0.39, 0.96)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.018) 0.011 (0.007, 0.016) 0.027 (0.02, 0.036) 0.01 (0.007, 0.015)
-+- graduation 0 221 68 231
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 21 11
n 99 (79, 126) 81 (26, 107) 94 (46, 121) 80 (24, 110)
n_unique 99 (79, 126) 81 (26, 107) 94 (46, 121) 80 (24, 110)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.39 (0.08, 0.77) 0.43 (0.07, 0.8) 0.4 (0.09, 0.81)
rate 0.025 (0.021, 0.029) 0.028 (0.023, 0.033) 0.026 (0.023, 0.032) 0.027 (0.023, 0.034)
-++ graduation 0 284 124 290
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 5 21 11
n 76 (56, 99) 54 (19, 84) 70 (24, 93) 53 (17, 80)
n_unique 76 (56, 99) 54 (19, 84) 70 (24, 93) 53 (17, 80)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.14, 0.89) 0.17 (0.02, 0.57) 0.53 (0.12, 0.88)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.027 (0.022, 0.033) 0.022 (0.017, 0.03)
+– graduation 0 266 371 242
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 63 50 89
n 44 (29, 56) 31 (10, 49) 27 (11, 45) 34 (11, 52)
n_unique 44 (29, 56) 31 (10, 49) 27 (11, 45) 34 (11, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.32 (0.06, 0.74) 0.99 (0.89, 1) 0.31 (0.06, 0.74)
rate 0.024 (0.018, 0.032) 0.027 (0.02, 0.039) 0.01 (0.006, 0.014) 0.027 (0.02, 0.037)
+-+ graduation 0 313 399 284
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 60 50 88
n 44 (25, 57) 26 (10, 51) 23 (9, 44) 30 (10, 51)
n_unique 44 (25, 57) 26 (10, 51) 23 (9, 44) 30 (10, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.62 (0.23, 0.91) 0.71 (0.3, 0.95) 0.65 (0.27, 0.93)
rate 0.013 (0.009, 0.018) 0.011 (0.007, 0.017) 0.01 (0.005, 0.015) 0.01 (0.006, 0.017)
++- graduation 0 312 379 311
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 6 18 11
n 32 (20, 45) 21 (8, 38) 20 (9, 37) 21 (8, 40)
n_unique 32 (20, 45) 21 (8, 38) 20 (9, 37) 21 (8, 40)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.34 (0.07, 0.76) 0.98 (0.83, 1) 0.39 (0.07, 0.77)
rate 0.025 (0.017, 0.034) 0.028 (0.02, 0.04) 0.01 (0.005, 0.015) 0.028 (0.019, 0.041)
+++ graduation 0 351 406 348
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 5 18 11
n 32 (19, 44) 19 (8, 38) 18 (8, 36) 18 (7, 39)
n_unique 32 (19, 44) 19 (8, 38) 18 (8, 36) 18 (7, 39)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.13, 0.8) 0.94 (0.7, 1) 0.44 (0.1, 0.81)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.029) 0.022 (0.015, 0.031) 0.009 (0.005, 0.016) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 6 12 6
time_stop 14 (11, 30) 26 (11, 52) 15 (12, 20)
n_trt 110 (82, 232) 166 (72, 386) 105 (76, 160)
n_control 103 (86, 242) 192 (78, 417) 126 (92, 162)
post_p 0.99 (0.95, 1) 0.97 (0.91, 0.99) 0.97 (0.96, 1)
order 1.5 (1, 2) 1 (1, 3) 1 (1, 1.5)
TP53- count 19 15 7
time_stop 25 (13, 49) 33 (19, 58) 17 (14, 19)
n_trt 115 (57, 190) 140 (75, 275) 60 (54, 95)
n_control 99 (54, 237) 132 (72, 279) 73 (56, 91)
post_p 0.98 (0.9, 1) 0.96 (0.94, 0.99) 0.91 (0.87, 0.97)
order 1 (1, 3) 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 1.4)
TP53+ count 10 10 39
time_stop 24 (18, 37) 38 (13, 50) 28 (17, 40)
n_trt 94 (55, 124) 109 (52, 180) 101 (54, 137)
n_control 92 (51, 136) 125 (48, 182) 99 (54, 143)
post_p 0.96 (0.95, 0.99) 0.96 (0.92, 1) 0.97 (0.92, 1)
order 1 (1, 3.2) 1.5 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
DRD+ count 7 6 351
time_stop 46 (29, 51) 31 (24, 52) 38 (25, 54)
n_trt 80 (66, 108) 53 (50, 100) 78 (51, 131)
n_control 96 (74, 131) 66 (39, 115) 88 (55, 140)
post_p 0.99 (0.97, 1) 0.95 (0.92, 0.99) 1 (0.97, 1)
order 2 (1, 2.4) 1.5 (1, 2.5) 1 (1, 2)
TEfus+ count 43 47 3
time_stop 41 (21, 58) 43 (24, 57) 34 (21, 39)
n_trt 122 (56, 194) 96 (57, 175) 66 (53, 107)
n_control 129 (57, 199) 119 (68, 192) 117 (63, 118)
post_p 0.98 (0.93, 1) 0.97 (0.91, 0.99) 0.92 (0.91, 0.92)
order 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 3.4) 2 (1.2, 3.6)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 33 23 2
time_stop 34 (19, 57) 25 (8, 52) 10 (8, 12)
n_trt 232 (144, 321) 166 (60, 325) 76 (65, 87)
n_control 295 (129, 544) 201 (56, 414) 80 (63, 96)
post_p 0.04 (0, 0.17) 0.06 (0.01, 0.18) 0.12 (0.08, 0.16)
order 4 (1, 5.8) 3 (1, 5.8) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 144 116 57
time_stop 24 (14, 47) 25 (13, 46) 15 (11, 26)
n_trt 102 (58, 197) 104 (56, 186) 67 (51, 115)
n_control 106 (54, 219) 105 (52, 216) 64 (43, 110)
post_p 0.16 (0.03, 0.27) 0.14 (0.03, 0.27) 0.14 (0.04, 0.26)
order 2 (1, 4) 1.5 (1, 4.5) 1 (1, 2)
TP53+ count 204 205 23
time_stop 28 (15, 51) 26 (15, 53) 18 (14, 28)
n_trt 103 (53, 190) 89 (52, 186) 68 (52, 98)
n_control 102 (51, 203) 91 (49, 187) 68 (46, 99)
post_p 0.14 (0.05, 0.26) 0.15 (0.04, 0.27) 0.12 (0.08, 0.24)
order 2 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4) 1 (1, 3.6)
DRD+ count 174 152
time_stop 35 (24, 52) 31 (24, 53)
n_trt 68 (51, 116) 60 (50, 113)
n_control 84 (50, 134) 74 (49, 122)
post_p 0.15 (0.04, 0.27) 0.15 (0.03, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5)
TEfus+ count 96 79 69
time_stop 31 (18, 54) 27 (18, 50) 25 (17, 41)
n_trt 80 (51, 142) 74 (52, 121) 67 (51, 117)
n_control 92 (49, 176) 80 (53, 149) 73 (47, 136)
post_p 0.17 (0.04, 0.28) 0.14 (0.05, 0.27) 0.09 (0.01, 0.19)
order 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 5) 2 (1, 4)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
time 14 (11, 30) 14 (11, 30) 14 (11, 30) 14 (11, 30) 14 (11, 30) 14 (11, 30) 14 (11, 30) 14 (11, 30)
n 36 (19, 77) 10 (6, 20) 16 (15, 46) 15 (10, 31) 8 (7, 16) 10 (8, 20) 6 (2, 14) 10 (4, 17)
post_p 0.77 (0.72, 0.92) 0.63 (0.6, 0.79) 0.67 (0.6, 0.76) 0.73 (0.69, 0.8) 0.68 (0.62, 0.79) 0.64 (0.6, 0.81) 0.61 (0.57, 0.68) 0.61 (0.56, 0.65)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.002, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.005) 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.007 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.007) 0 (0, 0.003) 0 (0, 0.013) 0 (0, 0.006)
Niraparib count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
time 15 (12, 20) 15 (12, 20) 15 (12, 20) 15 (12, 20) 15 (12, 20) 15 (12, 20) 15 (12, 20) 15 (12, 20)
n 30 (18, 52) 10 (6, 18) 20 (18, 26) 15 (8, 20) 8 (6, 17) 10 (7, 18) 4 (2, 10) 6 (3, 9)
post_p 0.7 (0.63, 0.85) 0.69 (0.56, 0.71) 0.76 (0.62, 0.82) 0.66 (0.57, 0.84) 0.72 (0.56, 0.8) 0.62 (0.58, 0.75) 0.59 (0.56, 0.73) 0.67 (0.57, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.013 (0.004, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.007) 0.01 (0.003, 0.018) 0.019 (0.005, 0.03) 0 (0, 0.004) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Taxel_therapies count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
time 26 (11, 52) 26 (11, 52) 26 (11, 52) 26 (11, 52) 26 (11, 52) 26 (11, 52) 26 (11, 52) 26 (11, 52)
n 56 (17, 114) 16 (4, 28) 29 (15, 83) 23 (9, 53) 14 (5, 32) 12 (5, 34) 11 (5, 22) 8 (4, 27)
post_p 0.74 (0.62, 0.81) 0.64 (0.6, 0.96) 0.67 (0.56, 0.79) 0.7 (0.57, 0.82) 0.74 (0.57, 0.86) 0.79 (0.65, 0.92) 0.63 (0.57, 0.8) 0.59 (0.56, 0.7)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.017 (0.001, 0.024) 0 (0, 0.009) 0.018 (0.01, 0.028) 0.01 (0, 0.019) 0.014 (0, 0.025) 0 (0, 0.008) 0.015 (0.001, 0.021) 0.003 (0, 0.019)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 7 7 7 7
time 46 (29, 51) 46 (29, 51) 46 (29, 51) 46 (29, 51)
n 26 (20, 35) 26 (18, 34) 13 (8, 23) 15 (8, 24)
post_p 0.77 (0.72, 0.91) 0.84 (0.74, 0.92) 0.81 (0.66, 0.85) 0.78 (0.69, 0.86)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.012, 0.023) 0.006 (0, 0.01) 0.016 (0.012, 0.021) 0.014 (0.006, 0.016)
Niraparib count 351 351 351 351
time 38 (25, 54) 38 (25, 54) 38 (25, 54) 38 (25, 54)
n 24 (12, 39) 22 (10, 38) 18 (9, 31) 17 (9, 31)
post_p 0.91 (0.74, 1) 0.73 (0.7, 0.87) 0.88 (0.71, 0.99) 0.82 (0.7, 0.96)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.011) 0.007 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
Taxel_therapies count 6 6 6 6
time 31 (24, 52) 31 (24, 52) 31 (24, 52) 31 (24, 52)
n 16 (10, 30) 16 (10, 31) 11 (8, 27) 10 (8, 26)
post_p 0.72 (0.67, 0.82) 0.84 (0.78, 0.86) 0.76 (0.71, 0.87) 0.67 (0.61, 0.83)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.01, 0.024) 0.002 (0, 0.01) 0.012 (0.003, 0.021) 0.005 (0, 0.016)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 43 43 43 43
time 41 (21, 58) 41 (21, 58) 41 (21, 58) 41 (21, 58)
n 28 (11, 47) 46 (20, 75) 24 (12, 45) 15 (6, 35)
post_p 0.81 (0.72, 0.95) 0.82 (0.71, 0.94) 0.77 (0.72, 0.91) 0.73 (0.63, 0.85)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.007 (0, 0.011) 0.016 (0.009, 0.018) 0.007 (0, 0.011) 0.013 (0, 0.019)
Niraparib count 3 3 3 3
time 34 (21, 39) 34 (21, 39) 34 (21, 39) 34 (21, 39)
n 12 (8, 20) 41 (23, 44) 9 (7, 26) 11 (10, 18)
post_p 0.73 (0.73, 0.78) 0.73 (0.72, 0.76) 0.69 (0.62, 0.7) 0.8 (0.73, 0.87)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0.007, 0.013) 0.018 (0.018, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.006) 0.004 (0.001, 0.006)
Taxel_therapies count 47 47 47 47
time 43 (24, 57) 43 (24, 57) 43 (24, 57) 43 (24, 57)
n 25 (13, 44) 35 (17, 72) 21 (10, 43) 14 (7, 33)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.91) 0.76 (0.71, 0.88) 0.76 (0.71, 0.91) 0.74 (0.65, 0.89)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.011) 0.015 (0.01, 0.02) 0.007 (0, 0.01) 0.012 (0, 0.019)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 19 19 19 19
time 25 (13, 49) 25 (13, 49) 25 (13, 49) 25 (13, 49)
n 67 (31, 118) 15 (8, 30) 19 (6, 32) 14 (8, 30)
post_p 0.87 (0.73, 0.97) 0.75 (0.68, 0.89) 0.74 (0.62, 0.82) 0.74 (0.65, 0.92)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0.01, 0.024) 0.005 (0, 0.011) 0.016 (0, 0.018) 0.004 (0, 0.008)
Niraparib count 7 7 7 7
time 17 (14, 19) 17 (14, 19) 17 (14, 19) 17 (14, 19)
n 34 (27, 59) 9 (7, 14) 10 (7, 16) 7 (6, 14)
post_p 0.77 (0.74, 0.8) 0.71 (0.64, 0.76) 0.69 (0.63, 0.84) 0.68 (0.61, 0.82)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.011, 0.017) 0 (0, 0.02) 0 (0, 0.009) 0 (0, 0)
Taxel_therapies count 15 15 15 15
time 33 (19, 58) 33 (19, 58) 33 (19, 58) 33 (19, 58)
n 79 (45, 149) 24 (11, 42) 21 (11, 39) 19 (8, 47)
post_p 0.74 (0.71, 0.93) 0.87 (0.72, 0.96) 0.75 (0.71, 0.85) 0.78 (0.7, 0.9)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.01, 0.024) 0.006 (0, 0.009) 0.017 (0.007, 0.023) 0.004 (0, 0.008)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 10 10 10 10
time 24 (18, 37) 24 (18, 37) 24 (18, 37) 24 (18, 37)
n 42 (17, 57) 25 (18, 37) 10 (6, 23) 10 (8, 18)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.93) 0.81 (0.74, 0.93) 0.72 (0.62, 0.84) 0.63 (0.61, 0.74)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0, 0.023) 0.012 (0.006, 0.017) 0.015 (0, 0.021) 0.007 (0, 0.019)
Niraparib count 39 39 39 39
time 28 (17, 40) 28 (17, 40) 28 (17, 40) 28 (17, 40)
n 43 (22, 59) 29 (19, 44) 11 (5, 20) 12 (7, 19)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.88) 0.75 (0.71, 0.86) 0.79 (0.65, 0.93) 0.76 (0.64, 0.86)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.018 (0.009, 0.022) 0.014 (0.004, 0.02) 0.005 (0, 0.012) 0.005 (0, 0.011)
Taxel_therapies count 10 10 10 10
time 38 (13, 50) 38 (13, 50) 38 (13, 50) 38 (13, 50)
n 50 (20, 71) 30 (16, 57) 14 (7, 24) 12 (5, 26)
post_p 0.8 (0.73, 0.89) 0.73 (0.71, 0.91) 0.73 (0.6, 0.9) 0.71 (0.62, 0.81)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.018 (0, 0.024) 0.012 (0.006, 0.018) 0.016 (0, 0.021) 0.012 (0, 0.015)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33
time 34 (19, 57) 34 (19, 57) 34 (19, 57) 34 (19, 57) 34 (19, 57) 34 (19, 57) 34 (19, 57) 34 (19, 57)
n 61 (32, 111) 19 (8, 30) 49 (21, 87) 30 (15, 47) 13 (9, 30) 16 (7, 26) 15 (5, 27) 13 (7, 30)
post_p 0.2 (0.09, 0.47) 0.39 (0.26, 0.47) 0.31 (0.06, 0.46) 0.29 (0.11, 0.46) 0.27 (0.1, 0.46) 0.33 (0.15, 0.48) 0.35 (0.16, 0.47) 0.37 (0.12, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.02, 0.031) 0.014 (0.005, 0.019) 0.027 (0.023, 0.036) 0.025 (0.02, 0.03) 0.029 (0.02, 0.044) 0.014 (0.007, 0.022) 0.026 (0.012, 0.036) 0.022 (0.011, 0.05)
Niraparib count 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
time 10 (8, 12) 10 (8, 12) 10 (8, 12) 10 (8, 12) 10 (8, 12) 10 (8, 12) 10 (8, 12) 10 (8, 12)
n 22 (21, 24) 8 (7, 9) 14 (9, 19) 6 (6, 7) 6 (5, 7) 7 (5, 9) 5 (4, 6) 7 (7, 7)
post_p 0.38 (0.3, 0.45) 0.45 (0.44, 0.48) 0.3 (0.2, 0.4) 0.33 (0.31, 0.35) 0.42 (0.42, 0.43) 0.28 (0.15, 0.42) 0.48 (0.47, 0.5) 0.43 (0.4, 0.45)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.017 (0.012, 0.022) 0.008 (0.002, 0.014) 0.047 (0.028, 0.066) 0.041 (0.038, 0.044) 0 (0, 0) 0.024 (0.005, 0.043) 0.017 (0.003, 0.03) 0.026 (0.021, 0.031)
Taxel_therapies count 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
time 25 (8, 52) 25 (8, 52) 25 (8, 52) 25 (8, 52) 25 (8, 52) 25 (8, 52) 25 (8, 52) 25 (8, 52)
n 50 (19, 116) 13 (3, 32) 30 (10, 87) 23 (8, 48) 12 (5, 19) 12 (4, 19) 9 (4, 17) 9 (2, 14)
post_p 0.34 (0.22, 0.43) 0.39 (0.21, 0.47) 0.37 (0.19, 0.46) 0.32 (0.19, 0.45) 0.31 (0.18, 0.45) 0.36 (0.15, 0.47) 0.36 (0.12, 0.46) 0.39 (0.18, 0.47)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.02, 0.034) 0.015 (0.002, 0.028) 0.027 (0.023, 0.035) 0.024 (0.018, 0.034) 0.027 (0.012, 0.058) 0.016 (0, 0.022) 0.028 (0.004, 0.048) 0.02 (0, 0.041)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 174 174 174 174
time 35 (24, 52) 35 (24, 52) 35 (24, 52) 35 (24, 52)
n 20 (11, 38) 19 (11, 35) 15 (8, 28) 14 (8, 26)
post_p 0.29 (0.09, 0.46) 0.38 (0.2, 0.49) 0.32 (0.1, 0.46) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.019, 0.037) 0.013 (0.008, 0.019) 0.027 (0.018, 0.043) 0.023 (0.014, 0.036)
Taxel_therapies count 152 152 152 152
time 31 (24, 53) 31 (24, 53) 31 (24, 53) 31 (24, 53)
n 19 (11, 34) 18 (11, 35) 14 (8, 28) 14 (8, 25)
post_p 0.27 (0.09, 0.46) 0.4 (0.2, 0.48) 0.3 (0.09, 0.46) 0.37 (0.13, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.027 (0.019, 0.039) 0.013 (0.007, 0.02) 0.028 (0.018, 0.046) 0.022 (0.013, 0.04)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 96 96 96 96
time 31 (18, 54) 31 (18, 54) 31 (18, 54) 31 (18, 54)
n 18 (10, 35) 30 (18, 52) 16 (9, 33) 12 (6, 26)
post_p 0.39 (0.19, 0.48) 0.31 (0.15, 0.46) 0.38 (0.18, 0.48) 0.36 (0.14, 0.47)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.009, 0.022) 0.023 (0.018, 0.029) 0.013 (0.008, 0.021) 0.023 (0.012, 0.041)
Niraparib count 69 69 69 69
time 25 (17, 41) 25 (17, 41) 25 (17, 41) 25 (17, 41)
n 16 (9, 32) 25 (17, 50) 15 (9, 28) 10 (5, 18)
post_p 0.16 (0.02, 0.38) 0.26 (0.04, 0.44) 0.4 (0.26, 0.48) 0.43 (0.27, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.016, 0.037) 0.025 (0.019, 0.037) 0.012 (0.008, 0.021) 0.016 (0.011, 0.038)
Taxel_therapies count 79 79 79 79
time 27 (18, 50) 27 (18, 50) 27 (18, 50) 27 (18, 50)
n 18 (9, 34) 25 (18, 53) 14 (8, 27) 11 (7, 18)
post_p 0.41 (0.19, 0.49) 0.33 (0.09, 0.49) 0.33 (0.14, 0.48) 0.38 (0.17, 0.47)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.009, 0.022) 0.023 (0.017, 0.033) 0.015 (0.008, 0.023) 0.021 (0.016, 0.037)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 144 144 144 144
time 24 (14, 47) 24 (14, 47) 24 (14, 47) 24 (14, 47)
n 55 (31, 118) 16 (8, 33) 14 (8, 30) 13 (7, 29)
post_p 0.28 (0.08, 0.47) 0.39 (0.22, 0.49) 0.3 (0.1, 0.48) 0.37 (0.21, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.019, 0.033) 0.014 (0.01, 0.023) 0.028 (0.016, 0.043) 0.013 (0.005, 0.023)
Niraparib count 57 57 57 57
time 15 (11, 26) 15 (11, 26) 15 (11, 26) 15 (11, 26)
n 36 (26, 64) 12 (7, 21) 11 (6, 18) 9 (5, 18)
post_p 0.29 (0.09, 0.46) 0.3 (0.14, 0.45) 0.42 (0.29, 0.5) 0.37 (0.22, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.024 (0.018, 0.031) 0.023 (0.01, 0.05) 0.018 (0.007, 0.035) 0.014 (0, 0.032)
Taxel_therapies count 116 116 116 116
time 25 (13, 46) 25 (13, 46) 25 (13, 46) 25 (13, 46)
n 56 (31, 114) 17 (8, 34) 14 (8, 27) 14 (7, 26)
post_p 0.3 (0.09, 0.45) 0.42 (0.23, 0.49) 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.36 (0.18, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.018, 0.03) 0.013 (0.009, 0.02) 0.026 (0.015, 0.047) 0.014 (0.008, 0.025)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 204 204 204 204
time 28 (15, 51) 28 (15, 51) 28 (15, 51) 28 (15, 51)
n 44 (22, 82) 30 (16, 59) 13 (6, 28) 12 (6, 28)
post_p 0.32 (0.11, 0.46) 0.38 (0.16, 0.48) 0.33 (0.13, 0.47) 0.36 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.026 (0.019, 0.033) 0.022 (0.016, 0.03) 0.028 (0.016, 0.047) 0.023 (0.013, 0.039)
Niraparib count 23 23 23 23
time 18 (14, 28) 18 (14, 28) 18 (14, 28) 18 (14, 28)
n 26 (19, 45) 21 (14, 33) 9 (4, 13) 8 (4, 14)
post_p 0.32 (0.12, 0.44) 0.34 (0.07, 0.46) 0.44 (0.34, 0.49) 0.41 (0.33, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.023 (0.015, 0.035) 0.022 (0.012, 0.043) 0.014 (0.002, 0.037) 0.02 (0.007, 0.028)
Taxel_therapies count 205 205 205 205
time 26 (15, 53) 26 (15, 53) 26 (15, 53) 26 (15, 53)
n 39 (21, 85) 25 (15, 60) 12 (6, 26) 11 (6, 24)
post_p 0.34 (0.12, 0.47) 0.38 (0.16, 0.48) 0.32 (0.1, 0.48) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.025 (0.018, 0.034) 0.022 (0.016, 0.031) 0.029 (0.015, 0.046) 0.022 (0.013, 0.039)